Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Statistical Properties of OLS

Our statistical model is restricted to linearity  (in parameters ).

The model we have is $y={{\beta }_{1}}+{{\beta }_{2}}X+\varepsilon$

As stated in the earlier post, we can stack everything together, and write the equation (no matter how many explanatory variables we have), in the matrix form: \(y=x\beta +\varepsilon\).  The matrix representation shows that the regression analysis is conditional upon value of 'x'

'Y' and 'X' are observed, 'beta' is fixed unknown parameter and '$\varepsilon $' is observed random term . 


The reason we use OLS is that, under assumptions A1- A7 of the classical linear regression model, the OLS have several desirable statistical properties. This post examines these desirable statistical properties of OLS under seven assumptions:

Seven assumptions of the model:

A1: Fixed Regressor: It means that all the elements of matrix 'x' with dimension N times K are fixed (or we can say it is non-stochastic/non random/deterministic). Further, assumption also requires that N must be greater than K  (N is number of observations and K is number of co-efficient), and matrix N*K is a full rank (Invertible).

Violations of these two conditions can have errors in variables in following forms:
a) Auto Regression
b) Simultaneous Equation  
c) Perfect Multicollinearity 


A2: Random Disturbance zero Mean: It means that expectation of random term is equal to zero or
$E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0\text{ or }E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0$. 




A3: Homoscedasticity: (Homo= Same and Scedas= Spread):  It means that variance of the error terms is equal to sigma square. $Var({{\varepsilon }_{i}})=\text{ E(}\varepsilon {{\varepsilon }^{T}})={{\sigma }^{2}}$.

The variance  is similar across range of values of independent variable.

Violation of A3 leads to Heteroscedasticity : It means that the variability of variable is unequal across the range of values.

We can use assumptions A2 $E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0\text{ or }E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0$  with A3 to get more insight regarding the property  $Var({{\varepsilon }_{i}})=\text{ E(}\varepsilon {{\varepsilon }^{T}})={{\sigma }^{2}}$  :



Step1 is formula of variance (actual subtract to mean)
Step2 is rule of decomposition 
Step 3 we replace the value of expectation of $E(\varepsilon )$from A2: which states that $E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0\text{ or }E\left[ \varepsilon  \right]=0$

A4:  No Auto-correlation: The Covariance between epsilon(i) and epsilon (j) is zero or $Cov({{\varepsilon }_{i}}{{\varepsilon }_{j}})=0$

In other words, error of 'i'th variable and 'j' variable doesn't change together.

A5: Constant Parameters : This means ${{\beta }_{k*1}}\text{ and }\varepsilon $ are fixed and unknown

A6: Linear Model : As stated earlier, it is linear in parameter. Basically it is saying that 'y' is generated through a process $y={{\beta }_{1}}+{{\beta }_{2}}X+\varepsilon$ (DGP= Data generating process)

A7: Normality: The distributions of the error term '$\varepsilon $' is normal

Now if we combine assumptions A2 (Random Distribution) +A3 (Homoscedasticity) +A4 (No Auto-Correlation)+A7 (Normality) we get '$\varepsilon \sim N(0\text{ , }{{\sigma }^{2}}{{I}_{N*N}})$'


In Econometrics; the assumptions are just like a catalogue , one has to refer the catalogue and if there is any violation (of the assumptions) then we must treat the violation with specific technique.

No comments:

Post a Comment